Cash Loans Abroad: Do Returns Outweigh Risks?

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The recent announcement from a financial technology company in China sparked considerable interest when it sought to recruit Spanish-speaking management traineesThe position requires supporting overseas business operations, collaborating with international teams, and ensuring consistent and high-quality external communications while possessing a deep understanding of Mexican culture and customsThis comes at a pivotal moment for the industry, particularly as companies strive to expand their footprints in new markets.

In 2024, the company obtained a license to operate in Mexico, marking a significant step in its overseas expansion strategy, which it sees as a key focus for growth in 2025. An insider from the fintech firm revealed that the profit margins for consumer credit lending are diminishing domestically, leading to plans to retain pure cash loan products while exploring opportunities overseasWith interest rates on loans domestically decreasing and profit margins tightening, many fintech companies are embarking on a journey to tap into international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and South America.

The burgeoning trend in China's fintech industry is evident as several companies, including Xin Ye Technology (NYSE: FINV), Lingyue Technology, Lexin (NASDAQ: LX), and Jia Yin Technology (NASDAQ: JFIN) start to explore overseas credit marketsHowever, these new markets are not without their challenges; various hurdles such as frail financial infrastructures, high credit risks, and intricate social ecosystems present significant obstacles for these companies.

Since around 2016, Chinese fintech companies have been pursuing opportunities in Southeast Asia, particularly following a regulatory crackdown on ‘cash loans’ domestically in 2017 that propelled the first wave of overseas endeavorsFast forward eight years, and the pursuit of international revenue streams continues unabatedThe core business model of these fintech companies involves harnessing big data, artificial intelligence, and cloud computing to streamline loan processes, connect individuals with banks, licensed consumer finance companies, and other financial institutions, thereby enhancing loan efficiency and mitigating risk

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Over the years, as they matured, many have arrived at a point of intense inter-company competition.

In their third-quarter reports for 2024, many publicly listed fintech companies noted downturns in loan balances, with some even reporting declines in both net profits and revenuesCompared to the explosive growth witnessed in the domestic market, the overseas cash loan arena presents extensive opportunitiesAccording to estimates gathered from third-party tools, companies aggressively competing for top spots in Indonesia’s app market reveal that six out of the top ten cash application downloads by volume originate from Chinese investmentsNotably, Easycash, a product of Beijing Lingyue Technology, and Adakami from Xin Ye Technology rank first and second, respectively.

Lingyue Technology’s website states that its brands, including YQG and Easycash, collectively processed over 327.53 billion yuan in transaction amounts globallyAdditionally, Easycash reports that since its inception, it has lent a staggering 634 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, amounting to approximately 28.4 billion yuanXin Ye Technology, on the other hand, disclosed that its international business generated revenues of 447 million yuan, 563 million yuan, and 585 million yuan respectively in the first three quarters of 2023, representing about 14.7%, 16.3%, and 18.3% of total quarterly revenuesIn 2024, this trend continued, evidencing an increasing reliance on international revenues with significant contributions notably from operations in Indonesia and the Philippines.

Lexin’s overseas business strategy, disclosed only in March 2024, shows that its domestic operations boast over one hundred billion yuan in loan balancesOnce again reflecting positive growth, it reported a notable 61% increase in lending volumes and a 113% rise in revenues in Mexico during the second quarter of 2024. As for the third quarter, Lexin has intensified investments and operations across Southeast Asia, witnessing a 31% rise in transacting users and an 18% increase in transaction volume within the Indonesian market.

Lexin’s representatives articulated the importance of overseas development, stating that their international loan volumes and revenues have maintained a consistent upward trend, achieving a year-on-year growth rate of 150% compared to 2023. They have emphasized their ongoing exploration of new customer acquisition models tailored to the local market while efficiently establishing operations in Indonesia and keeping a keen eye on additional emerging market opportunities.

Amidst this frenzy of overseas expansion, a rising sentiment within the industry indicates worries about the sustainability of business models as competition intensifies

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With new entrants flocking to markets like Indonesia, many experts predict an inevitable 'red sea' where mid to long-tail players are likely to become obsolete.

Take the Indonesian market as a case in point; recently, the Financial Services Authority of Indonesia raised the maximum daily interest rate for personal loans from 0.2% to 0.3%, translating into an annualized rate of around 109.5%. Following a sharp increase in liquidity issues in 2018, the authority previously recognized that the absence of interest rate caps might lead to significant regulatory arbitrageIt initially set rates to 0.9% daily in 2019 but subsequently lowered the ceiling to 0.4% in 2022. Still, it seems the new maximum daily interest rate will remain stable for the foreseeable future.

A professional with experience in Southeast Asian lending markets noted that these developments illustrate the challenges of maintaining operational profitability under stringent regulatory circumstancesWith over half of Indonesia's population lacking access to banking services and a considerable percentage holding only debit accounts, obtaining reliable credit remains scarceThe high costs of acquiring trust in such markets mean that loan losses can easily reach 20% or more for first-time borrowers and about 12% for repeat borrowers in the cash loan sectorFor companies wishing to sustain operations, it becomes paramount to compensate through reasonable risk pricing.

The competitive landscape also entails selecting trustworthy local partners, which comes with its own set of complexitiesInstances where businesses have faced difficulties due to inadequate local management underscore the potential pitfalls of international venturesA notable case involved a company that hired local expertise but faced lawsuits resulting from mismanagementSuch experiences highlight the necessity for rigorous due diligence when selecting operative partners abroad.

Moreover, domestic challenges also linger, with regulatory compliance becoming increasingly complex as firms expand into new territories

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